Hartsfield's Landing
Bartlet returns from a visit to India to deal with a crisis looming in the Taiwan Strait (1). The issue ultimately turns on the United States' policy of selling advanced weapon systems to Taiwan (2) and Bartlet's withdrawing an offer that he never intended to make in the first place. At the same time, Bartlet plays chess with Sam and with Toby, and Toby continues to press Bartlet on his tortured relationship with his father. Josh urges Donna to convince a New Hampshire family to vote for Bartlet since the family happens to live in a small village that has coincidentally predicted every presidential election since Taft; the family has several problems with the president, including a wish to change the federal tax system back to one based on the sales tax (3). CJ and Charlie take intra-office bickering to higher and higher levels.
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China-Taiwan: Overview (last updated February 18, 2002) (back to top)
Despite growing economic ties between China and Taiwan, China's claims of right to Taiwan continue to be a source of tension in East Asia and in Sino-US relations. Crises in the 1950s threatened to escalate into nuclear war and have again risen in the 1990s, most dramatically when China conducted military exercises in the Taiwan Strait in 1995 and 1996, both times provoking a United States response to help prevent the situation from escalating.
China ruled the island of Taiwan from 1680 to 1895, when it ceded the island to Japan as a result of the first Sino-Japanese war. Japan then ruled the island as a colony for 50 years, and the island finally reverted to Chinese rule in 1945 following World War II. However, when a long-running civil war between Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalist Chinese (KMT) government and the Chinese Communist Party led by Mao Zedong ended in Mao's favor in 1949, about two million refugees fled to Taiwan and established a government in exile there.
Ever since, the People's Republic of China has stated that it views Taiwan as a part of China and that it does not rule out any means of returning the island to Chinese rule. China has also built up its forces near Taiwan, especially missiles that could reach the island. Taiwan's leaders, on the other hand, have claimed independence and have built up military forces of their own, focusing on advanced technology rather than trying to match China's vast numerical superiority. In recent years, peoples in China and Taiwan have built up economic ties, but tensions still continue, especially as China itself undergoes changes in leadership and tensions between its military and economic interests.
The United States initially stayed out of the China-Taiwan conflict, but after the Korean conflict broke out in mid-1940, President Harry S Truman declared the "neutralization" of the strait and sent the Seventh Fleet to the Straits to prevent either side from attacking. President Dwight Eisenhower then ended this blockade in early 1953.
Two crises over Taiwan then unfolded in the 1950s, both times threatening to escalate into nuclear strikes. The first occurred from 1954 to 1955, when Beijing conducted an artillery bombardment of Quemoy and Matsu, areas where Taiwan's Chiang Kai-shek had built up forces to attack the mainland; the situation escalated when Beijing sentenced 13 US airmen shot down over China in the Korean War to long jail terms. The United States signed a mutual defense treaty with Taiwan in December 1954 and Eisenhower administration officials even announced they were considering using nuclear strikes to end the crisis. The crisis was finally resolved gradually when Beijing stopped shelling in May 1955 and then released the captured airmen in August.
Three years later, from August to October 1958, Beijing resumed the artillery bombardment of Quemoy and Matsu. The Eisenhower administration responded forcefully, deploying massive naval forces to the Straits and making plans for nuclear strikes on the mainland. Even though the Soviet Union promised to view any US attack on mainland China as an attack on the Soviet Union, Beijing announced it would suspend bombardment and arrange a conclusion to the crisis.
From the late 1950s to the mid-1990s, relations between the United States, China, and Taiwan were handled on the political arena, largely governed by three joint communiqués issued in the 1970s and early 1980s, by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, and by trade sanctions imposed on China after the Tianenmen Square incidents of 1989.
The first joint communiqué resulted from President Richard Nixon's visit to China in 1972. In this communiqué, the United States acknowledged the existence of one China, that Taiwan was part of China, and that the United States' "ultimate objective" was the "withdrawal of all US forces and military installations from Taiwan."
With the second communiqué, issued on January 1, 1979, the US and China announced the establishment of formal diplomatic relations, and the US formally recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legal government of China. The US stopped official relations with Taiwan but promised to maintain various unofficial relations with Taiwan (for example, the United States does not have an embassy in Taiwan but works through a private organization, the American Institute in Taiwan).
However, later that year, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, committing the United States to helping with Taiwan's security, including providing Taiwan with "arms of a defensive character." This caused tensions between the United States and China, leading to a third communiqué signed in August 1982. In this communiqué, the United States declared it would not increase arms sales to Taiwan beyond the levels since 1979, and that it intended to gradually reduce arms sales "over a period of time to a final resolution." The conflict between these two statements has been a source of tension several times, most notably in 1992 when President George Bush authorized a large sale of F-16 fighters to Taiwan. (For more on arms sales to Taiwan, go here).
A renewed conflict between China and the United States over Taiwan began to emerge in June 1995. That month, the United States allowed Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui to visit his alma mater, Cornell University, for what was said to be a "private" visit. During his stay, Lee took advantage of the media attention, referring to the "Republic of China on Taiwan." Beijing responded to the visit by withdrawing its ambassador from Washington.
Soon after, in July 1995 and again in August, the conflict took on a military air when Beijing conducted missile tests about 90 miles northeast of Taipei. Beijing's army then held large naval and amphibious blockage exercises off Dongshan Island, near Taiwan, in November 1995, shortly before Taiwan's parliamentary elections. The United States responded to these exercises by sending the USS Nimitz battle group in December 1995 through the Taiwan Strait, the first carrier to make that passage since 1979. Beijing called the action potentially hostile.
The crisis continued until March 1996. That month, Beijing announced plans to conduct more live-fire military exercises in March 1996, shortly before Taiwan's presidential election. The United States responded by sending the USS Independence and Nimitz battle groups to Taiwan. Beijing's actions seemed designed to limit Taiwan's behavior, not to invade or attack the island, and, in any case, the situation resolved without further escalation. In any case, President Lee Teng-hui was re-elected by a large margin shortly after the crisis, probably the exact opposite of what Beijing intended via its actions.
Since then, relations have continued with smaller moves of more uncertain significance. In July 1999, President Lee Teng-hui said in an interview that Beijing and Taipei should conduct relations on a "special state-to-state" relationship, upsetting Beijing. In March 2000, Taiwan saw a change in presidents, as an opposition candidate took office. In early 2001, the United States and Beijing came into conflict over an incident between a US spy plane and a Chinese plane, which resulted in the temporary detainment of US airmen. In April 2001, President George W. Bush authorized increased levels of US arm sales to Taiwan, including the offer of submarines. In September 2001, both China and Taiwan entered the World Trade Organization, with China entering one day before Taiwan (for more on the WTO, go here).
One potential factor is the change in Chinese leadership that is scheduled to occur in 2003, which could alter the East Asian political landscape considerably.
Overall, US policy towards Taiwan has remained consistent since the 1990s, though precise formulations have changed. The United States recognizes "one China," though it does support Taiwan's peaceful existence. The United States does not support Taiwan's membership in any organizations in which statehood is a requirement, such as the United Nations, but does support its membership in other organizations for such statehood is not required, such as the Asian Development Bank.
Taiwan was under martial law from the 1940s until 1987 and continued to be ruled by the Kuomintang (KMT, or Nationalist Party) for many years after. In March 2000, an opposition candidate, Chen Shui-bian of the Democratic Progressive Party, won the presidential election for the first time, and Taiwan saw its first peaceful transfer of office.
For updates, and for more information on China and on Asia, go here.
Sources: The State Department's country background note on Taiwan is available via its site here. The Federation of American Scientists provides background information on the Taiwan Straits situation and the three crises there here. The CIA World Factbook entries are available on-line for China and for Taiwan.
China and Taiwan: Military Forces and Buildup (last updated February 18, 2002) (back to top)
Facing each other across the Strait of Taiwan, both China and Taiwan have been building up their militaries, especially since the mid-1980s. China has numerical advantages in manpower, aircraft, submarines, and ballistic and nuclear missiles, but Taiwan has better-quality equipment and more advanced technology, much of it bought from the United States.
Given China's numerical superiority, many believe that Taiwan, standing alone, could not resist a Chinese invasion, though such an invasion would be extremely costly to China's resources and to its place in the international community. A Department of Defense report in 2000 estimated that for the next decade, "regardless of timing, a successful invasion would exact tremendous losses and require a massive commitment of military and civilian assets."
Even so, such calculations of an isolated China-Taiwan conflict are not particularly useful, since the United States and the international community would undoubtedly intervene in any China-Taiwan military conflict. When the United States is factored in, many believe that China is years, if not decades, from posing a serious military threat to US interests. Brookings Institution scholar Michael O'Hanlon, for example, pointed out in a May 2001 Senate committee hearing that the United States outspends China on defense by at least 5 to 1, that the United States owns about ten times the amount of modern equipment as China, and that China's resources are spread too thin over an oversized force.
According to US Department of Defense reports, China's army began shifting about a decade ago from a strategy based on large-scale, land-based warfare to one based on small-scale, regional conflicts, officially called "people's war under modern conditions." Under this strategy, the Chinese army recognizes that it is technologically behind the United States or Japan, but is compensating by scaling down its large forces in order to increase their effectiveness and is also developing the ability to seize quick victories before opponents can mobilize their forces.
China is also focusing on developing missile capabilities in southeast China, near Taiwan, and tested such missiles in 1995 and 1996. In 2000, it had one regimental-sized CSS-6 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) unit deployed in southeastern China and was expected to expand that force substantially. These missiles are generally inaccurate, but China is reportedly working to improve the accuracy and survivability of such SRBMs.
Taiwan has a smaller army but seeks to offset China's numerical superiority through advanced weaponry, often purchased from the United States. For example, it has purchased the Modified Air Defense System, a theater missile defense system used to counter ballistic missiles (as discussed here, there are several different types of missile defense; the one most commonly discussed and pushed by George W. Bush is national, rather than theater).
US policy towards selling arms to Taiwan is governed by two somewhat contradictory documents. The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 committed the United States to giving Taiwan defense systems as compensation for shifting recognition earlier that year from Taipei to Beijing. This law caused tensions with China, and the United States and China issued a joint communiqué in 1982 in which the United States stated that it would limit arms sales to no more than $830 million a year, and that this value would decline "over a period of time to a final resolution."
Since then, the United States and China have often argued over how these ideas are to be carried out, with the United States declining to sell some arms to Taiwan in order to not raise China's fears. In 1992, President George Bush authorized the sale of 150 F-16 fighters to Taiwan for five billion dollars, sparking outcry from China though these sales would not result in deliveries for several years. Since then, arms sales have fallen below $500 million a year, though deliveries have gone up and down as prior sales agreements are fulfilled.
The situation may be changing. In April 2001, President George W. Bush decided to offer Taiwan more advanced weaponry, including submarines. Previous presidents had declined to offer submarines since they could be considered "offensive" weapons, rather than primarily defensive equipment.
According to the CIA World Factbook and other sources, China spent a reported $12.6 billion on defense in 1999, though actual defense spending is generally believed to be at least two to three times higher since many budget items are reported elsewhere, and has about 200 million men fit for military service. Taiwan spent about $8 billion in 1999 and has about 5 million men fit for military service.
According to the Defense Department reports of 1999 and 2000, China's air force consisted of 4,300 tactical fighters, 1,000 bomber and close air support aircraft, and 650 transport aircraft, but mostly consisted of "technologically obsolete airframes." Its navy included about 60 destroyers and frigates, about 60 diesel and six nuclear submarines developed indigenously and purchased from Russia, and about 50 amphibious landing ships. By contrast, Taiwan has around 400 combat aircraft and only four submarines.
Sources: The Department of Defense's 2000 report on China's military power is on-line here, and its 1999 report on the security situation in the Taiwan Strait is on-line here. Information used in the Taiwan arms sales graph for FY 1991-2000 is taken from the Department of Defense's Defense Security Cooperation Agency, on-line here, and data for earlier years was taken from a table used by Professor David M. Lampton in the August 4, 1999 hearing by the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations on the proposed Taiwan Security Enhancement Act. A summer 1999 article by Brookings Institution fellows Bates Gill and Michael O'Hanlon, "China's Hollow Military," is on-line here. The Federation of American Scientists has information on Taiwan's defense buildup here. The CIA World Factbook entries are available on-line for China and for Taiwan. Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, Where are US-China Relations Headed? (May 1, 2001), and S. 693: The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (August 4, 1999).
Federal Budget Receipts (last updated February 27, 2002) (back to top)
How the federal government has funded itself has changed over the country's life. In 1934, the federal government got almost half of its money from sales taxes, and about a quarter from individual and corporate income taxes combined. In 2000, the federal government got nearly half its money from individual income taxes alone, a third from social insurance taxes, and less than four percent from sales taxes.
The federal government funded itself from its beginning to the Civil War primarily through customs duties, supplementing that income in the 19th century with the sale of public lands. From the 1860s to the early 1940s, sales taxes (particularly on alcohol and tobacco) became the major source of federal funds.
Since 1913, when the Sixteenth Amendment empowering the federal government to tax individual and corporate income was enacted (for the text, go here), income taxes have become a significant federal receipts source, providing nearly 80 percent of the federal budget in 1944. After World War II, individual income tax receipts have continued to make up about 45 percent of the federal budget, though corporate income tax receipts have dropped as a share of federal receipts, falling from 35 percent in 1945 to about 10 percent in 2000.
As corporate income tax receipts have fallen, social insurance taxes - such as Social Security taxes - have brought in a larger share of federal receipts, now about a third of the federal government's annual budget. Estate taxes, which are being gradually phased out as a result of President George W. Bush's 2001 tax cut legislation, never comprised a huge part of the federal budget; they comprised 5.4 percent of federal receipts in 1940 and 1.4 percent in 2000.
For more on the federal budget, go here.
Sources: Data taken from historical tables for the FY 2002 budget (see table 2.1), available through the White House's Office of Management and Budget, on-line here.
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